Tigers: Flight or Fight

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

There is a mixed picture for SE Asia.
Vietnam and Malaysia in an uptrend
Thailand and Indonesia in a downtrend

Vietnam(VNM) probably is forming a triangle and it is now in a medium term top.

Malaysia (EWM) another triangle is forming.We are leaning towards a downward resolution of this formation

Thailand (THD) is probably entering in a sideways formation between 65-82$

Indonesia (IDX) is also in an sideways formation between 20-27$

USD Long Term- A Bottom Pattern?

USD is in a very long bottom pattern similar to 1991-1996.

USD is about to complete the pattern in the red cycle and head south around 75 where it should bounce and start a long term  uptrend.

A deja vu for SPX ?

A bearish view on SPX. A possible pathway 
In black the extremely bearish scenario

Rising Tension Between West-Russia=Rising Palladium?

Here (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-24/guess-which-precious-metal-controlled-russians) is an interesting article about palladium.Most of the worlds palladium is minted in Russia.So maybe there is a correlation between the events in Krimea and prices of palladium.Our technical view for Palladium is the following

Which may mean that tensions may escalate between West and Russia.


Technical View

Palladium recently broke up from a triangular consolidation pattern (or from a handle of a cup),retraced to the upper line of the triangle in order to test the breakout, bounced and is now heading towards 817$ and possibly 853$

Gold to Silver Ratio favors... silver from now on

Gold to Silver ratio (GSR) is now at the upper line(which acted as resistance many times in the past since 1991) of a descending channel.Here it will probably bounce and start falling.This will mean a relative better performance of silver against gold in the near future.

 

GOLD DAILY-GDX DAILY

Gold did break the trendline from Dec2013 today(and stopped exactly at 55 days exp moving average) and now is moving towards 1285$ where it will probably reverse.As it turns out,  in Friday we gold did not managed to make a golden cross as we noticed(http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/golden-cross-or-not.html)

GDX also broke its respective trendline earlier than gold and is now moving towards 23,20$ where it should bounce and reverse, forming the right shoulder of an Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern(IHS).
Then probably will move towards 30,45$ and then 34,90$

A POSSIBLE PATHWAY FOR GOLD

Zooming in a previous chart of gold(http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/weekly-gold.html).

If gold breaks the trendline from Dec2013 on Monday,next stop will probably be 1285$(50% retracement of the upmove from Dec2013) .
Assuming that resistance at 1285 holds, then a right shoulder of an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern will be formed.
From there next target will be 1453$ and then 1555$

Golden Cross or not ?

Here(http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-21/gold-completes-golden-cross) is an interesting postfrom ZH. It says that a golden cross( golds 50 day moving average above 200 day moving average) has just happened...or not?According to the set of Exponential Moving Averages that I prefer to use(21,55,236  all are Fibo series numbers), the golden cross is... an accident(or celebration) waiting to happenA nice weekend to you all!

Silver Price approaching support

Silver Price is approaching strong support at 19$

If silver confirms support at 19$ and bounces then probably it is forming a descending triangle(often a trend reversal pattern)
Breaking support at 19$, leads to next stop at 15$

GOLD PRICE TODAY

Gold today at around 1330 $
Between Exponential Moving Averages(EMA) 55 and 21.Did not manage to stay above Exponential Moving Average(EMA) 236
Gold at Medium term uptrend support

Medium term uptrend(from Dec 2013) still intact but....



GOLD Miners

Uptrend from Dec2013 broken.Now acts as resistance
GDX found short term support at around 23$(near EMA55)

Municipal Bonds in an Uptrend but...

PZA DAILY

Municipal bonds are on a clear uptrend (EMA 21 > EMA55 > EMA236)  but negative RSI divergence is building.
I believe that a correction towards 23,5(EMA 55) is possible and then a new upleg towards 24,9

THREE CUPS IN A ROW

From 2003 Palladium is rising following a series of consecutive Cup with Handle formations like a Fractal pattern!
So maybe a last kiss of EMA(236) and then to the moon!

GDX Weekly

GDX Weekly

Price between  EMA 21 and EMA 55
Testing EMA 55 resistance @ 28,11$
Resistance zone : 28$(EMA55)-30,45$

Possible pathways:
a) GDX breaks EMA55 and tests Resistance @30,45$ (Neckline) then corrects
b)GDX Rejects EMA55 and corrects

Correction Targets: Between fibo 61,8%-76,4% i.e GDX @22,5 $-24,5 $

In that case there will be an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern (IHS) with the right shoulder at ~22,5-24,5 $ projecting @ 40 $ (30% upside potential)

So , possible Buy zone @ 22,5-24,5 $
                     with Target @ 35-40 $
                       Stop Loss @ 19,80 $

     

Weekly Gold

Trading Thoughts about...Trading

Gold: Building strength?

Gold Weekly:

Facts:

Overhead resistance @ ~1400-1430$

EMA:Price tests EMA(55),EMA(233)

Possible Pathway: GC@~1415 then correction to Fibo 61,8(1275$) or fibo 76,4(1243$)
                            with targets @~1640$