Gold at resistance zone

Gold recently managed to break above 1130$ and move towards the strong resistance zone of 1155-1160$.Probably Gold has just finished a 4th wave.It is now lying just below a strong resistance zone and is getting overbought(RSI(14) 69) .IF gold manages to break (and remain) above 1160 then the current count is dead and a possible next target will be 1200-1210$.This will be the last line of defence for the bears.

Same picture for miners(GDX).GDX managed to break above 15 but it is still below the strong resistance zone of 17.5-18.IF GDX breaks above 18 then next target will be 20.5 (last line of defence for bears).

  

Gold still Bearish (...but slowly we're getting there)

Recently gold broke up from a trading range around 1090.Regardless of the recent run-up we remain bearish on gold. Currently and as long as gold stays below 1135, it has few possibilities for a longer-term upmove.
We believe that the current move of gold will stall at around 1125-1130 (or lower) and reverse towards 1080 or a bit lower.

We stay with a previous gold EW count(Gold shows further signs of weakness).
Current upmove is probably a fourth wave of a bigger third wave.So probably, gold will retrace towards 1080 or lower in a fifth wave:

Same picture for miners (GDX):Probably the current upmove will fade at around 14.8 and reverse towards recent lows (13.0) or even lower.After that, a strong bounce (fourth wave of current downmove from January this year) will probably kick in.

GOLDEXIT

Recently Gold and Gold Miners were heavily hammered.
2 weeks ago we wrote about the current move of gold predicting a move towards 1190-1110 (Ready for a Goldexit?)
Currently Gold paused temporarily at 1190-1110 level.
Although we believe that continuation of the downmove is very much probable, bulls will have a last chance if we see an immediate move above 1135 level.

Regarding miners GDX, we wrote 1 month ago that there was a good possibility for a -35% move of GDX towards 11(Another 35% fall for Gold Miners(HUI,GDX)).

We still believe that GDX is moving towards 11-ish.
Last chance for bulls a quick move above 15.5-16.

Ready for a Goldexit?

Gold broke down the minor support zone at 1175 and bounced at 1160 as we correctly predicted (Gold shows further signs of weakness).

Currently gold price hovers around support at 1160.

If gold moves below 1160 then probably 1135-1140 support zone will not hold leading gold towards 1090-1110.

Similarly GDX is moving towards 17.If GDX moves below 17 then probably it will gravitate towards 14.5-15 

Another 35% fall for Gold Miners(HUI,GDX)?

Gold Miners (HUI, GDX) are currently confined between a major descending trendline from 2011 and a major support at 150(HUI)/17(GDX)

Soon something must give way and if our current Gold EW count (Is Gold starting a Major Decline towards sub-1000$?) is correct a possible scenario could be the following:

If Gold Miners break the 150(HUI)/17(GDX) support then the next major support is approximately 35% lower at 100(HUI)/11(GDX).
  

Gold near crucial pivot

A quick update today:

Gold is approaching the current crucial pivot of 1170$
If it breaks below 1170 then 1130$ is a very possible immediate target.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF):Crucial pivot @ 18,4$.If it breaks below then 14,8$ is a reasonable target  

Gold and Miners ahead of FED meeting

Gold did not form a rising wedge and instead it proceed to form what it seems like a trading range between 1180-1215.
However 1240-1250 remains the key level.Above that level bulls start to have chances for a substantial upmove.Our view is that Gold will move (especially after yesterdays upmove) towards 1240-1250 where probably it will bounce and (?)reverse.

Regarding Gold Miners ETF (GDX) we stay with our scenario(Gold:a fake Inverted H&S, a rising wedge and at the end a very bearish III(3) for GDX?) for an upmove towards  21-21,5 where probably it will bounce.

Don't forget we are just ahead of FED meeting and short term volatility for gold will increase substantially. Be ready to readjust your views after FED meeting tomorrow.

Gold:a fake Inverted H&S, a rising wedge and at the end a very bearish III(3) for GDX?

Gold seems like forming an inverted H&S formation (blue rectangle) that we believe it is a fake one .On the contrary we believe that gold is possibly forming a rising wedge (usually a bearish formation) pointing to around 1240$ where there is a resistance zone.

Gold Miners (GDX) formed a triangle that we believe (70%) it will break up  (fake move?) towards 21-21,5 where probably will bounce and reverse

A possible very bearish EW count

Gold Miners: A possible EW count suggesting major break down

As we noted in a previous post(Gold and Miners:A temporary bounce?) Gold and Gold Miners (GDX) bounced at resistance zone of 1200-1210 and 20-20,5 respectively.They are moving now downwards possibly towards their support zones at 1140-1150 and 17-18 respectively.

A possible GDX Elliot Wave count suggests a break down of support zone and a move towards 7,5-10$.

A scenario like the above is in accordance with our old view(March 2014)(A deja vu for SPX ?) that major equity index- SP500 will top at around 2000 and then slide to a new bear market.
et tempora quidem ante erit difficile...

Gold and Miners:A temporary bounce?

Gold bounced hard at 1140$ and is moving higher.Now it is just under a resistance zone at 1200-1205$ where probably will not penetrate and move lower, maybe to test again 1140 level.

Same picture for miners (GDX) ETF. It bounced at the extremely important support of 17-18 (Will Gold miners form a triangle?) and is now just below a resistance zone at 20-20,5$.It also filled the gap of early March(blue circle).We believe that GDX at current levels or a bit higher will bounce and move lower again.

To summarize, we lean bearish towards Gold for the following days-weeks    

Will Gold miners form a triangle?

Gold Miners (HUI): 

HUI is since 2012 in a clear downtrend.Recently has bounced once at a very significant support zone at 150-160(green area).

Currently HUI is confined between two descending resistance trendlines (black stronger, blue weaker) and the support zone at 150-160.

We believe that HUI will probably bounce at 150-160 and then move towards the weaker resistance trendline(blue)

A possible scenario could be the following:

Gold in uptrend(?), Silver and miners still in downtrend

Gold managed to penetrate the heavy resistance line from 2012 and EMA(weekly) 21 and 55 which is bullish.However RSI14(weekly) bounced at resistance area 60-65(red line).

Silver and miners(GDX) are still below their heavy resistance trendlines from 2012 and EMA55(weekly) respectively.

Will Gold drag Silver and GDX or vice versa?

We believe that the level of 1235-1240$ is very important for gold.Bulls need to see price of gold above that level and preferably RSI14(weekly) breaking above its respective resistance area of 60-65(usually that happens during a 3,III).If Gold moves below that level the bullish scenario is loosing steam...

Gold and Gold Miners still in bear mode-update

As we noticed almost 2 weeks ago (gold-and-gold-miners-still-in-bear-mode) Gold followed our preferred (pink) scenario and moved towards 1240$ where it bounced.

We can see some similarities of price action between October and from November until now (blue boxes).We believe that Gold will probably move fast initially towards 1100 and then 1000$

Gold Miners broke below the weak support line at around 18,5. Now this line is a weak resistance line which is converging with a descending resistance line (black line) and the EMA55(daily). There is a cluster of resistance between 18,5 to 20-21$ that is highly unlikely for GDX to penetrate.

Therefore we believe that GDX soon will move towards 14$ and then even 11$ where there is a good support zone as you can see in the following $HUI chart (100 HUI level=aprox 11 for GDX)

     

Gold and Gold Miners still in bear mode

Gold is still in a downtrend at around 1206 during typing this lines.There is a descending resistance trendline from late 2012 (weekly chart black line) currently at 1250$ and a positive divergence in weekly RSI (blue line)

During the last few days gold is in a tight trading range between 1190-1210$(practically between Daily EMA21 and EMA55).If gold manages to stay above 1210 we believe that it will move towards 1230-1240 where it will bounce and resume its downtrend with a fierce move towards 1000$(pink line).
If gold breaks below 1190$ then it will resume its downtrend towards initially 1110 and then 1000$(red line).We give 60% to the former and 40% to the later scenario.So be cautious with the interpretation of the current upmove from 1140$...

Regarding the Gold Miners (GDX), the picture is the same.If GDX manages to stay above 20$ then next target is 21-22$ where it will probably bounce and resume its downtrend towards 10$.If it breaks down below 18,5, probably it will move towards initially 14-14,5$ and then lower.

Gold and Miners already started next leg down

Just a quick update.Gold and miners (GDX) didn't manage to move sideways this week.In fact GDX had yesterday a huge drop.Gold and GDX probably started next leg down (there is also MACD confirmation for both charts). As we said last week (Gold and Miners update 24-10-14) Gold is now moving towards 1000$ and GDX towards 15$

Gold and Gold Miners update

Gold is trading during the last week between 1225-1250$(as we said in last week update).We believe that next week is  important for determination of Gold downtrend momentum and maybe the level of an (at least) intermediate bottom.
If Gold manages to stay next week in the same trading range(1225-1250) then an attenuation of down pressure to gold price will probably lead to a bottom at 1100$.

If gold breaks down from the trading range then it has a good chance for an accelerated move towards 1000$.

Same picture for Gold Miners (GDX).If GDX manages to stay for another week between 20-22 then a bottom at around 17,5 is possible.

If it breaks down soon below 20$ then a move towards 15 is possible.  

Gold and miners Update

Gold bounced at 1190 support and now is moving towards 1240-5.Currently between 1245-1260 (red circle) there is a significant resistance area.For bulls to have a chance they need to see gold to move above this area.We believe that for the next few days gold will move sideways between 1225-1240-5(blue rectangle).If gold breaks 1190 then 1150 and 1100 are next targets

Gold Miners(GDX) are in a similar situation.Overhead there are 2 strong declining resistance trendlines (black lines) currently at 23 and 25,5.We lean towards a sideways move for GDX for the following days between 20,5 and 22,3$.A break below 20,5 will lead price towards 19,5 and then 17,8

 

Gold-Gold Miners Update

Just a quick update...

Gold is now in a short term uptrend heading towards 1380$ where it will probably bounce and correct towards 1315$

Similar situation for the miners (GDX).GDX has just broke a declining resistance line (weekly chart) currently at 26,18. GDX will bounce again at 28$(or  a little higher) and correct towards 26$ to test the break-out.