Various asset class prices in oil barrels and What do they reveal...

-"Oil makes the world go round"?

-Oil is the most valuable commodity for the entire economic activity worldwide.In the following charts we can see the price of various asset classes in oil barrels.Oil exporters are producing wealth with which they can buy different asset classes like precious and basic metals, equities or bonds.Let us now see in terms of oil barrels which of these assets are now expensive and which of them are cheap

A)Gold

Gold is currently expensive.Not a buy.

B)Platinum

Platinum is fairly priced.Not a buy.

C)Palladium

Palladium is expensive.Maybe a sell

Basic metals

D)Copper

Copper is relatively expensive.Not a buy.

Equities

E)SP-500

Equities are fairly priced.Still not expensive but near a resistance line(middle horizontal line) and maybe that's why near a correction.

F)30 year Bond price

Bonds are still cheap and in a downtrend.However bonds might be ready to break the descending trendline from 1999 and start an uptrend.That would be another buy signal for bonds.

Let us now see what it would have happened if we had traded these assets when they were cheap(buy) or expensive(sell) in terms of oil barrels. 

Gold

Platinum

Palladium

Copper

SP-500

Bonds

Not bad at all!We can see that in many cases buying or selling various asset classes based on their historical oversold or overbought condition in terms of oil barrels  is an interesting although relatively long-term market timing strategy.
We can also see that the only two asset classes that are currently on a buy signal are SPX and Bonds(bonds last buy signal in 2005, and SPX last buy signal in late 2011).

Palladium:A correction or something bigger?

Palladium (PALL) broke down from its rising channel(blue lines).Next stop is 78-79 where 55 exponential moving average (weekly) and a horizontal line from early 2013 top provide support to palladium price.

Bulls need to see PALL price staying above 78-79 AND RSI(Weekly) above 40.In that case these levels might be a good buying opportunity.On the other hand if price slips below these levels next support level is 74-75 (black trendline from summer 2012 upmove).A PALL price of 74-75 will probably result to a stall of the current upmove and a formation of a trading range.

In the next few days there is a possibility for a reaction of PALL price towards 82 and then a final move towards 78-79. 

Gold and Palladium update

Gold managed to stay above 1290$ but below the descending resistance line from mid-July.In order to establish its upmove potential gold must move above 1320$.(Blue line represents a possible bullish scenario)

Palladium (PALL) is moving up(inside an ascending channel) currently above the mid-channel trendline.

   

Palladium and SPX cycles

Palladium ($PALL) is in a clear uptrend after breaking out from a consolidation pattern early this year which is in line with our prediction for significantly higher prices of palladium in the following years (http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/rising-tension-between-west.html).Palladium relative performance to SPX seems to follow an aprox 6 year cycle.Also there seems to be an interesting symmetry in this chart(pall:spx).If symmetry does truly exist we expect a relative outperformance of palladium over SPX until late 2017- early 2018.

Zooming in the PALL:SPX chart we notice that 
PALL:SPX is currently in a downtrend (SPX outperformance). However price of PALL:SPX already pierced 55 week EMA during late 2012 early 2013 and again
this year (April until now). We believe that Palladium soon will begin outperforming SPX.

Blue Line (very bullish scenario)
Green Line (Bullish scenario) 

Palladium Cycles...Does history rhyme?

Palladium ( 30% of palladium supply comes from Russia) is about to hit a resistance line (both in Dollar and in Gold terms). 

Palladium in Dollar terms

Palladium in Gold terms

We can clearly see a cycle price pattern for palladium(in gold ounces)

If Palladium manages to break through the resistance then we may see much higher prices like 1998-2001 (observe the similarity between green and orange rectangles)

Rising Tension Between West-Russia=Rising Palladium?

Here (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-24/guess-which-precious-metal-controlled-russians) is an interesting article about palladium.Most of the worlds palladium is minted in Russia.So maybe there is a correlation between the events in Krimea and prices of palladium.Our technical view for Palladium is the following

Which may mean that tensions may escalate between West and Russia.


Technical View

Palladium recently broke up from a triangular consolidation pattern (or from a handle of a cup),retraced to the upper line of the triangle in order to test the breakout, bounced and is now heading towards 817$ and possibly 853$

THREE CUPS IN A ROW

From 2003 Palladium is rising following a series of consecutive Cup with Handle formations like a Fractal pattern!
So maybe a last kiss of EMA(236) and then to the moon!