Has silver's long awaited bull started?

Recently silver had a quick strong upmove and managed to break above resistance at 15.5. Despite the recent upmove we remain neutral on silver.It seems like it is forming a rising channel (neutral-bullish scenario) or a rising wedge (bearish scenario). Currently there is an important rising support line (the lower line of the channel/wedge) which is very critical. As long as silver stays above that line a significant bull move is on the cards. A break below that line can signal the continuation of the long-term downtrend for silver.
1.Neutral scenario(60%)

2.Bullish scenario (30%)

3.Bearish scenario (10%)

To summarize:(For the next 1-2 weeks) A sustained move above 16.00 will be very bullish for silver.We will remain neutral between 16.00-14.65. A quick move below 14.65-14.75 will turn our view on silver bearish again

Silver out of the woods? not yet...A pathway for the next days

Silver is in a triangle formation.There is significant resistance at 15.50 level.Currently silver is moving towards 15.50.We believe that silver won't break 15.50 and will slide towards the support line of the triangle at around 14.6. 
At that point silver will either(red line scenario) break below support and move towards 13.5 or it will bounce and retest 15.50.A break above 15.50 (green line scenario) will lead silver towards 16 and then probably it will retest 15.50 as support.