Gold still Bearish (...but slowly we're getting there)

Recently gold broke up from a trading range around 1090.Regardless of the recent run-up we remain bearish on gold. Currently and as long as gold stays below 1135, it has few possibilities for a longer-term upmove.
We believe that the current move of gold will stall at around 1125-1130 (or lower) and reverse towards 1080 or a bit lower.

We stay with a previous gold EW count(Gold shows further signs of weakness).
Current upmove is probably a fourth wave of a bigger third wave.So probably, gold will retrace towards 1080 or lower in a fifth wave:

Same picture for miners (GDX):Probably the current upmove will fade at around 14.8 and reverse towards recent lows (13.0) or even lower.After that, a strong bounce (fourth wave of current downmove from January this year) will probably kick in.

Oil at crossroads

Currently Oil is touching support at 46$.As we noted in a previous comment (Oil towards 46$) 46 level is an inflection point.We believe that Oil will soon breakdown 46$ and move towards 36-37$ with simultaneous increase in volume (capitulation) which can potentially lead to a significant reversal, marking the initiation of a significant bull move from these levels.

Similar picture for Oil companies (XLE).As we predicted there was a bounce at 68 level.However the bounce was not significant.Probably we will see a move towards 59-60$ or even lower with increased volume (capitulation, bankruptcies for oil explorers) and then a significant reversal.

GOLDEXIT

Recently Gold and Gold Miners were heavily hammered.
2 weeks ago we wrote about the current move of gold predicting a move towards 1190-1110 (Ready for a Goldexit?)
Currently Gold paused temporarily at 1190-1110 level.
Although we believe that continuation of the downmove is very much probable, bulls will have a last chance if we see an immediate move above 1135 level.

Regarding miners GDX, we wrote 1 month ago that there was a good possibility for a -35% move of GDX towards 11(Another 35% fall for Gold Miners(HUI,GDX)).

We still believe that GDX is moving towards 11-ish.
Last chance for bulls a quick move above 15.5-16.

Ready for a Goldexit?

Gold broke down the minor support zone at 1175 and bounced at 1160 as we correctly predicted (Gold shows further signs of weakness).

Currently gold price hovers around support at 1160.

If gold moves below 1160 then probably 1135-1140 support zone will not hold leading gold towards 1090-1110.

Similarly GDX is moving towards 17.If GDX moves below 17 then probably it will gravitate towards 14.5-15 

Oil towards 46$

Oil (WTIC) after moving around 60$ for some time, recently started a steep descend (look China, Grexit).

Currently the line in the sand for oil bear market lies at around 46$.If oil price moves below 46$ then continuation of price descend towards 36-37$ is possible.If oil manages to stay above 46$ AND bounce significantly then the current bear market continuation is becoming doubtful.

Yesterday XLE broke support at 74$ which is a significant event in our opinion.Now, if XLE stays below 74$ then probably it will move towards 68$, along with oil at 46$.

Gold shows further signs of weakness

Gold didn't manage to break the resistance zone of 1190-1200 and now is moving towards a minor support zone at 1175 which is another proof of gold price action weakness.

We believe that 1175 level is a weak support and probably will not hold.In this case gold will probably move initially towards 1160 where there is some support and if it breaks towards 1140.

The big picture for gold remains bearish.

Another 35% fall for Gold Miners(HUI,GDX)?

Gold Miners (HUI, GDX) are currently confined between a major descending trendline from 2011 and a major support at 150(HUI)/17(GDX)

Soon something must give way and if our current Gold EW count (Is Gold starting a Major Decline towards sub-1000$?) is correct a possible scenario could be the following:

If Gold Miners break the 150(HUI)/17(GDX) support then the next major support is approximately 35% lower at 100(HUI)/11(GDX).
  

Markets View for the week starting 15.06.2015

Status Changes

GBPEUR: Bearish-Neutral---->Neutral

New Targets

DAX: 10.370

FTSE 100: 6.530

Markets View for the week staring 08.06.2015

Status Changes
FTSE: Bullish---->Bearish
EURUSD: Neutral---->Bullish-Neutral

Is Gold starting a Major Decline towards sub-1000$?

Back in late April(Gold and Miners ahead of FED meeting) we suggested the following pathway for Gold

Recently Gold completed the C wave of an ABC correction and we believe that currently is in wave 1 or 3 of 3.If Gold confirms our case we are about to witness a major decline of gold towards 1070-1060$.Immediate targets 1162$ and then 1122$.

If we are in a third wave then probably we are going to see Gold initially at around 1070 and then maybe even 930$
Currently Gold can invalidate our scenario  if it moves above 1190$