SP500(SPX): A bear flag is forming...

SP500 (SPX) is probably forming kind of a bear flag which probably will signal the continuation of the recent downtrend.Currently as we noted yesterday there is lots of resistance at 2020(Lots of overhead resistance for SPX today). A weak support line lies at around 1915 and then there is some significant support from the lower trendline of the bear flag.For the next couple of weeks we expect a move towards the lower line of the bear flag.However this line probably will hold at least temporarily and a bounce towards 1975 is very likely.

Lots of overhead resistance for SPX today

Has silver's long awaited bull started?

Recently silver had a quick strong upmove and managed to break above resistance at 15.5. Despite the recent upmove we remain neutral on silver.It seems like it is forming a rising channel (neutral-bullish scenario) or a rising wedge (bearish scenario). Currently there is an important rising support line (the lower line of the channel/wedge) which is very critical. As long as silver stays above that line a significant bull move is on the cards. A break below that line can signal the continuation of the long-term downtrend for silver.
1.Neutral scenario(60%)

2.Bullish scenario (30%)

3.Bearish scenario (10%)

To summarize:(For the next 1-2 weeks) A sustained move above 16.00 will be very bullish for silver.We will remain neutral between 16.00-14.65. A quick move below 14.65-14.75 will turn our view on silver bearish again

Copper: Trading setups for a bear continuation and for a possible reversal

Copper is currently in a longterm downtrend.

Today we are presenting 2 trading set-ups:
1.Bearish set up

At 2.40 there is significant resistance from the descending trendline. We will sell at 2.40 with a stop-loss(SL) at 2.41(SL is activated only if the price closes above 2.41).If price moves downwards towards our first target at 2.26 then we will move our stop-loss order to 2.33.Second target for this trade is 2.20.
Currently we favor the bearish scenario as Copper is in a longterm downtrend and we prefer to short the rallies rather than try to catch the knife (=bottom)

2.Bullish set-up

If price manages to break above 2.40 , it will probably move towards 2.50 where it should bounce.In that case our long order will be at 2.43 with SL at around 2.42 (again SL is activated only if price closes below 2.42).First target for this scenario would be 2.57.

Any opinions and ideas expressed herein are only opinion and for informational purposes only.Nothing on this blog is to be considered a buy, sell or hold recommendation.Always do your own due diligence

Silver out of the woods? not yet...A pathway for the next days

Silver is in a triangle formation.There is significant resistance at 15.50 level.Currently silver is moving towards 15.50.We believe that silver won't break 15.50 and will slide towards the support line of the triangle at around 14.6. 
At that point silver will either(red line scenario) break below support and move towards 13.5 or it will bounce and retest 15.50.A break above 15.50 (green line scenario) will lead silver towards 16 and then probably it will retest 15.50 as support.

TLT moving on....

During the last 1.5 months TLT is moving according to our previous prediction (QE...4?)

Today TLT is hovering just above the resistance level of 125.If TLT manages to close today or early next week above 125 probably it will bounce at around today's high 126.2 and move towards 124 where we can see another good entry point.

Is gold forming a triangle?

A couple of days ago we suggested 3 possible moves for gold (Gold: A road-map for the next 15 days).At that time we were neutral and in fact we remain neutral on gold.Gold broke below the support line of the rising channel and currently is moving towards 1110 support.

If gold bounces at that level then probably gold is forming a triangle (usually a continuation pattern).

If gold breaks below 1110 and especially below 1090-1095, this will mean a possible move towards 1040-1045.

 

Gold: A road-map for the next 15 days

Recently Gold managed to break above the resistance at 1135.
Currently gold is moving along a steep rising channel and next resistance level lies at around 1165 (previous regional high on 23/8/15).Above 1165 there is heavy resistance at 1180 level.

Currently as we explained in a previous post(Gold: Ready to make a move?), we remain neutral about gold. Below we describe a bullish, a neutral and a bearish pathway for gold depending on the price action at different important levels:

A)Bullish scenario
Gold retraces towards the lower channel line near the support line of 1136 where it bounces and moves above 1167 level towards 1175-1180 (channel resistance and heavy horizontal resistance) where it will probably correct towards 1160-1165.A break above 1180 level can be a very bullish event.

B)Neutral Scenario
Gold breaks below the channel support and horizontal support at around 1136 and then after a small pause moves towards 1110

C)Bearish scenario
Gold moves below 1110 after forming a Head and Shoulders (three black wedges).This formation points towards 1100.A move below 1110 is a significant bearish event.A move below 1090-1095 will be a very bearish event for gold 

Brazil turnaround?....Under conditions the unthinkable can happen

Currently Brazil (EWZ) is in a well established downtrend since a year ago(-57% since last Sept).

Yesterday EWZ closed(21.90) just below the critical level of 22 forming a gap.Today is going to be a very interesting day regarding the price action of EWZ.
2 possible scenarios:
A) EWZ closes well below 22.That will probably mean that the gap was actually a continuation gap and will lead EWZ towards 14.
B)EWZ closes above 22.In that case a possible inverted H&S formation is on the cards.In that case we need to see a fast move with relatively increasing volume(PVO already is increasing and is ready to cross zero level).This upmove needs to break 23.8 level and close above this price level.Then a correction towards around 23.3 will complete the pattern of an inverted H&S.

 However wait until almost today's close.Don't catch the falling knife...Be ready to catch the handle.

Gold: Ready to make a move?

Gold after bouncing at resistance zone of 1155-1160(Gold at resistance zone) moved downwards towards support at 1105$.Currently Gold is lying between 2 support and 2 resistance zones(green and red lines respectively).

At this point Gold is in an established long-term downtrend (beneath 200 SMA).Short-term Gold is neutral.In order to establish a new uptrend or confirm the current downtrend gold needs to move above 1155-1160 resistance zone or below 1075 support respectively.

We believe that a significant move of gold price is in the cards.As we can notice in the weekly Gold Volatility Index chart ($GVZ), gold volatility after bottoming during last summer is now in an uptrend.

Currently we are neutral on gold.Above 1155-1160 gold will turn bullish and the next target will be 1190-1200.

Below 1075 gold will be bearish and next target will be 1025$