Are better days coming for oil? 2 possible scenarios.

Oil after touching 37's bounced hard towards mid-40's. A month ago we suggested that oil would move towards 36-37$ and then bounce hard(Oil at crossroads).

Currently oil is approaching a strong resistance zone at 48-50$ where the current upmove will probably stall.From that point onwards we can see two possible scanarios :
A)A V-shape bottom scanario where oil will move above 50$.
B)Oil will bounce at 48-50$ (or even lower) and then move towards 38-40$ at which point it will reverse and move towards 44-46$, where it will face a substantial resistance zone.This one is our prefered scenario currently and it is a scenario that potentially can lead to a longer-term bottom formation

Again Energy sector (XLE) moved according to our plan and bounced at 59-60.We believe that the current upmove of XLE will stall at 68-70$ and then probably it will move again towards 60's or lower. 

Treasuries: A small pause

TLT (20+ year treasury bond ETF) tried without success to break above the resistance zone of 125-126.

As we noted earlier (QE...4?) TLT will probably move towards 120 where it will probably bounce.We stay with our previous projection:

Gold at resistance zone

Gold recently managed to break above 1130$ and move towards the strong resistance zone of 1155-1160$.Probably Gold has just finished a 4th wave.It is now lying just below a strong resistance zone and is getting overbought(RSI(14) 69) .IF gold manages to break (and remain) above 1160 then the current count is dead and a possible next target will be 1200-1210$.This will be the last line of defence for the bears.

Same picture for miners(GDX).GDX managed to break above 15 but it is still below the strong resistance zone of 17.5-18.IF GDX breaks above 18 then next target will be 20.5 (last line of defence for bears).

  

QE...4?

Long-term US treasuries (TLT) have probably entered a new bull phase after a correction from 138.5 (early 2015 high) to around 115.5(A-B-C correction).

We believe that TLT will probably stall at 125-126 and correct towards 120 where it will bounce and resume its upmove towards 131.5 and then 140.

It is very important for TLT to break above 131.5 to establish a longer-term bull move.

We feel that the above chart could possibly mark a new round of QE... 

Gold still Bearish (...but slowly we're getting there)

Recently gold broke up from a trading range around 1090.Regardless of the recent run-up we remain bearish on gold. Currently and as long as gold stays below 1135, it has few possibilities for a longer-term upmove.
We believe that the current move of gold will stall at around 1125-1130 (or lower) and reverse towards 1080 or a bit lower.

We stay with a previous gold EW count(Gold shows further signs of weakness).
Current upmove is probably a fourth wave of a bigger third wave.So probably, gold will retrace towards 1080 or lower in a fifth wave:

Same picture for miners (GDX):Probably the current upmove will fade at around 14.8 and reverse towards recent lows (13.0) or even lower.After that, a strong bounce (fourth wave of current downmove from January this year) will probably kick in.

Oil at crossroads

Currently Oil is touching support at 46$.As we noted in a previous comment (Oil towards 46$) 46 level is an inflection point.We believe that Oil will soon breakdown 46$ and move towards 36-37$ with simultaneous increase in volume (capitulation) which can potentially lead to a significant reversal, marking the initiation of a significant bull move from these levels.

Similar picture for Oil companies (XLE).As we predicted there was a bounce at 68 level.However the bounce was not significant.Probably we will see a move towards 59-60$ or even lower with increased volume (capitulation, bankruptcies for oil explorers) and then a significant reversal.

GOLDEXIT

Recently Gold and Gold Miners were heavily hammered.
2 weeks ago we wrote about the current move of gold predicting a move towards 1190-1110 (Ready for a Goldexit?)
Currently Gold paused temporarily at 1190-1110 level.
Although we believe that continuation of the downmove is very much probable, bulls will have a last chance if we see an immediate move above 1135 level.

Regarding miners GDX, we wrote 1 month ago that there was a good possibility for a -35% move of GDX towards 11(Another 35% fall for Gold Miners(HUI,GDX)).

We still believe that GDX is moving towards 11-ish.
Last chance for bulls a quick move above 15.5-16.

Ready for a Goldexit?

Gold broke down the minor support zone at 1175 and bounced at 1160 as we correctly predicted (Gold shows further signs of weakness).

Currently gold price hovers around support at 1160.

If gold moves below 1160 then probably 1135-1140 support zone will not hold leading gold towards 1090-1110.

Similarly GDX is moving towards 17.If GDX moves below 17 then probably it will gravitate towards 14.5-15 

Oil towards 46$

Oil (WTIC) after moving around 60$ for some time, recently started a steep descend (look China, Grexit).

Currently the line in the sand for oil bear market lies at around 46$.If oil price moves below 46$ then continuation of price descend towards 36-37$ is possible.If oil manages to stay above 46$ AND bounce significantly then the current bear market continuation is becoming doubtful.

Yesterday XLE broke support at 74$ which is a significant event in our opinion.Now, if XLE stays below 74$ then probably it will move towards 68$, along with oil at 46$.

Gold shows further signs of weakness

Gold didn't manage to break the resistance zone of 1190-1200 and now is moving towards a minor support zone at 1175 which is another proof of gold price action weakness.

We believe that 1175 level is a weak support and probably will not hold.In this case gold will probably move initially towards 1160 where there is some support and if it breaks towards 1140.

The big picture for gold remains bearish.