Further USD strengthening versus EM currencies?

A textbook Head and Shoulders pattern with volume confirmation in Emerging markets local debt fund (ELD) suggests significant further strength for USD versus EM currencies (especially NE Asian currencies) and possibly further weakness for EM markets like EWM(Malaysia), EWS(Singapore), IDX(Indonesia)

A few wishful(?) end of year thoughts on Gold and USD

As we are heading towards the end of the year, we would like to share with you a few of our thoughts on Gold and USD. The following scenario is a byproduct of blending a delicious turkey dinner and a lot of wine with discussions about cycles, fractals, politics, physics and religion...

We would like to thank and wish all our readers a Happy New  Year and a very Profitable 2015!

USD index 2008-now:A continuation or a reversal pattern?Use of Mass index as a guide

There is a striking similarity of the price action of USD index between 1988-1997 and 2008-now.In both cases, after a substantial decline, USD formed a trading range pattern(blue boxes).Apart from the visual similarity between these two time periods, we believe that there are important quality-technical differences up to now.

1988-1997

• Time:9 years
• Mass index signals: 4 buy signals(green arrows){buy=Mass index>26 and USD in downtrend) and 2 sell signals(red arrows){sell=Mass index>26 and USD in uptrend}The 3rd sell signal was in mid-1997 after price outbreak from the descending black line(blue circle).During the final bottom of this trading range there was a buy signal and after that an extensive USD uptrend that resulted in trading range breakout(blue circle) and a top at 120 in 2001-2002.

2008-now

• Time:6 years (not completed pattern?)
• Mass index signals:1 buy signal at the beggining of the trading range(2008) followed by 3 sell signals (2009,2010,2013).Currently there is no buy signal and USD price is still inside the trading range.

Taking a closer look to 2008-today formation:

-USD is in a steep uptrend (RSI overbought)
-There are 2 overhead resistance trendlines(black) currently at 86 and 88-89(top of trading range in pink).
-No new buy signal from Mass index at the beggining of the current upmove
-Mass index is starting to climb gradually.

So, for the time being we suspect that USD will stall at either 86 or 88-89 possibly along with a Mass index reading of >26.After that USD might retreat towards 79 or even 72-74.
We believe that 

• In order for USD bulls to see a sustained USD rally above 89 first we need to have a downmove toeards the lower part of trading range along with a Mass index>26(buy signal)

• In order for USD bears to see a breakdown of USD bellow 72 we need to see first a bounce of USD price at 86 or 89 along with a sell signal from Mass index during the current upmove and an absence of a Mass index buy signal during the following downmove.  

Bullish Scenario

Bearish Scenario

USD Long Term- A Bottom Pattern?

USD is in a very long bottom pattern similar to 1991-1996.

USD is about to complete the pattern in the red cycle and head south around 75 where it should bounce and start a long term  uptrend.