Since mid-2012 the alt-energy(GEX) sector is outperforming the classic (oil) energy sector(XLE)
Also the conventional energy sector (XLE) is in all time highs with declining volume and the RSI is over 70 (is getting overbought).It seems it is approaching a top.
On the other hand alternative energy will probably form a nice cup and handle basing pattern (volume pattern seems to confirm this also)
Whats next?We believe that a handle will be formed towards 45 and then a bullish run towards 75-80, 100, 120.
Bonds currently seem overbought and ready for a small correction..probably a buying opportunity
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TLT (20+ years treasury bond ETF) has already made a golden cross (21 week exp.moving average crossed 55 week exp.moving average) after hitting a double bottom last year.Probably it will correct towards 110,5 and then resume its uptrend towards 121.
TIP (Inflation protected Treasury Bond ETF) has just made a golden cross.Probably it will correct towards 114 and then resume its uptrend towards 120.
Finally both Gold and miners broke down from their respective triangles (and rising RSI trendline) and are now moving towards 1200$ and 20,7$ respectively
Next target for Gold 1200$ where it should bounce.
Next target for GDX 20,7$
Silver is now sitting on a critical support at ~18,75$.If silver break down through that support then it will move initially towards 16$
As SP500 (SPX) is moving towards new highs since mid 2013
, Value Line Geometric Index (XVG) (here is a definition of this index from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_Line_Composite_Index) hit a long term resistance of previous highs (1998, 2007) and bounced.
The last time there was such a divergence between SPX and XVG was during 1998-2000 when XVG topped out in mid-1998 and SPX almost 2 years later in mid-2000.
Is XVG going to break out from this multiyear resistance and follow SPX or is XVG going far south dragging SPX with it?
We believe that XVG already topped out and the clock is ticking for the end of the SPX bull run from 2009.Though for how long will SPX diverge from XVG is difficult to tell...
Palladium ( 30% of palladium supply comes from Russia) is about to hit a resistance line (both in Dollar and in Gold terms).
Palladium in Dollar terms
Palladium in Gold terms
We can clearly see a cycle price pattern for palladium(in gold ounces)If Palladium manages to break through the resistance then we may see much higher prices like 1998-2001 (observe the similarity between green and orange rectangles)
Gold is probably ready to break up or down from the triangle that is forming from early April. Weekly RSI(14) is near its uptrend support. Trading triangles is a bit tricky as they tend to break out to one direction and then reverse and resume to the opposite direction...
Recently (http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/emergening-markets-latin-america.html) we showed a few charts of Latin America ETFs. Especially in Peru (EPU) we showed a possible bottoming diamond pattern that has now broken to the upside
Also Brazil (EWZ) seems to break out from its falling wedge
And Mexico (EWW) from a triangle formation (although a triangle formation break out frequently ends to reverse and move the opposite way)
So altogether: Bullish Latin America...
10 Year Treasury Note:Possible diamond pattern(we believe that in this case it is a medium term bottom pattern)
30 Year Treasury Bond:Probably has formed an inverted head and shoulders and know is crossing the neckline(thin black line) and 55 weak Exp Moving Average.
Inflation Protected Treasuries (TIP):Has formed an ascending (bullish) triangle and recently broke up decisively. Probably it will move towards 119$
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