A few wishful(?) end of year thoughts on Gold and USD

As we are heading towards the end of the year, we would like to share with you a few of our thoughts on Gold and USD. The following scenario is a byproduct of blending a delicious turkey dinner and a lot of wine with discussions about cycles, fractals, politics, physics and religion...

We would like to thank and wish all our readers a Happy New  Year and a very Profitable 2015!

Gold and Gold Miners still in bear mode-update

As we noticed almost 2 weeks ago (gold-and-gold-miners-still-in-bear-mode) Gold followed our preferred (pink) scenario and moved towards 1240$ where it bounced.

We can see some similarities of price action between October and from November until now (blue boxes).We believe that Gold will probably move fast initially towards 1100 and then 1000$

Gold Miners broke below the weak support line at around 18,5. Now this line is a weak resistance line which is converging with a descending resistance line (black line) and the EMA55(daily). There is a cluster of resistance between 18,5 to 20-21$ that is highly unlikely for GDX to penetrate.

Therefore we believe that GDX soon will move towards 14$ and then even 11$ where there is a good support zone as you can see in the following $HUI chart (100 HUI level=aprox 11 for GDX)

     

Energy stocks (XLE) death cross

As we predicted in this post (2014/10/energy-sector-xle-kol-short-term-bounce) energy stocks (XLE) bounced at 88$ and then resumed their descend towards 73$ ( 73,89$ 12-12-14 intraday low). Also EMA21(weekly) just crossed EMA55(weekly) which is a death cross event. Unless XLE reverses and starts rallying immediately, we expect a move initially towards 60-65$ where there is a support zone from 2009,2011,2012 .If price manages to break this zone then a move towards 50-55$(support zone from 2008,2010) is very likely.

Gold and Gold Miners still in bear mode

Gold is still in a downtrend at around 1206 during typing this lines.There is a descending resistance trendline from late 2012 (weekly chart black line) currently at 1250$ and a positive divergence in weekly RSI (blue line)

During the last few days gold is in a tight trading range between 1190-1210$(practically between Daily EMA21 and EMA55).If gold manages to stay above 1210 we believe that it will move towards 1230-1240 where it will bounce and resume its downtrend with a fierce move towards 1000$(pink line).
If gold breaks below 1190$ then it will resume its downtrend towards initially 1110 and then 1000$(red line).We give 60% to the former and 40% to the later scenario.So be cautious with the interpretation of the current upmove from 1140$...

Regarding the Gold Miners (GDX), the picture is the same.If GDX manages to stay above 20$ then next target is 21-22$ where it will probably bounce and resume its downtrend towards 10$.If it breaks down below 18,5, probably it will move towards initially 14-14,5$ and then lower.

Gold: Still bearish-some potential to move towards 1220$

Gold is currently in a counter-trend. If gold manages to stay above 1180 for a few days more then it can move gradually up to 1220 (EMA(daily)-55 and descending trendline of the current downmove from July)  where probably it will bounce and resume its downtrend towards 950-1000$. If Gold is going to loose 1180 level sooner rather than later then it will probably resume immediately its downtrend.The Swiss gold referendum could be a catalyst event for gold price.We believe that as long as Gold stays below 1250-1260$ there is a low possibility for a substantial long-lasting rally.

Thick black line:Descending trendline from Sept 2012
Thin black line :Descending trendline from July 2014
Green line: Weak support level at 1180$

Silver price:2 scenarios

Silver is in the current downtrend since mid-summer 2014 and it is probably moving towards 14$ (even 13).
Currently silver is in a countertrend with the following resistance levels:
1.Exponential moving average 21 (daily):16,26$
2. Exponential moving average 55 (daily): around 17$,where there is a resistance level from 2008,2009 and 2010
If Silver manages to stay above 16 and above EMA21 then the next critical level is 17$.From there we can see 2 scenarios:
A)Bullish(blue):Silver goes above 17 and then may form an inverted head an shoulder (Neckline 17,5$,  target 20$)
B)Bearish(red):Silver bounces at 17 and then moves towards 14$.It is our preffered scenario.

Alternative Energy entering a Bear market?

Alternative Energy ETFs like Solar Energy (TAN) and Wind Energy (FAN) have already broken their support trendlines and after a period of distribution (especially for TAN).Next targets for TAN 25 and 14$.

Next targets for FAN 8 and 6$

Gold towards 1000$: A Final bottom?

Gold is currently heading towards 1080-1100$ where it will probably bounce towards 1140$ and then resume its downtrend with a final leg towards 1000$.There is a significant support zone at around 950-1000$(green zone)

Bollinger Band width and Mass index indicator have already started to move upwards and with a fast move of gold price towards 1000$ these indicators can easily move above 20 and 26 respectively.In that case they will trigger a second buy signal according to our previous study (Gold mass-ive trend change).

 We believe that 950$-1000$ will be the final bottom for this gold bear market that started in 2012. 

Agricultural Commodities (DBA) : Final leg down

As we predicted in mid summer 2014(01-07-2014) (http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/DBA) Agricultural commodities ETF followed a downtrend and broke down below 26$
Our bearish prediction

Currently DBA is in a neutral condition between 25-26,5.However we still favor our bearish scenario. There is a good possibility for DBA to move initially towards 24$ and then 22-22,5 (where there is a strong support zone) and bottom out at these levels at approximately spring-summer 2015.There is still a bullish scenario in the cards if DBA manages to move above 26,5$, although we think it is unlikely to materialize.

Uranium (URA): Still in bear mode

As we predicted in early October (09-10-14) (http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/uranium-and-crudeready-for-bounce.html) Uranium ETF (URA) bounced exactly between 11-11,5 and is now moving fast towards around 13,5 and possibly even 15$.