Gold in uptrend(?), Silver and miners still in downtrend

Gold managed to penetrate the heavy resistance line from 2012 and EMA(weekly) 21 and 55 which is bullish.However RSI14(weekly) bounced at resistance area 60-65(red line).

Silver and miners(GDX) are still below their heavy resistance trendlines from 2012 and EMA55(weekly) respectively.

Will Gold drag Silver and GDX or vice versa?

We believe that the level of 1235-1240$ is very important for gold.Bulls need to see price of gold above that level and preferably RSI14(weekly) breaking above its respective resistance area of 60-65(usually that happens during a 3,III).If Gold moves below that level the bullish scenario is loosing steam...

Gold turning bullish?

Gold finally managed to breakup the significant resistance line from 2012 with heavy volume after forming an IHS.Currently price of gold is above 21 and 55 EMA.
Next target 1340$.

Gold at crossroads...

Gold is currently in a downtrend, still below EMA(weekly)55 and the descending trendline (black line) from 2012.Weekly RSI is below 60-65 resistance zone.

Daily chart, shows price of gold currently hitting the heavy resistance trendline(black) and daily RSI entering the resistance zone of 60-65.

Bulls need to see gold to break the descending trendline  with substantially increased volume and preferably  daily RSI above 65.We believe that there is a good chance for gold to bounce at resistance and continue its downtrend.   

Geometric Value Line Index:Never confirmed the SPX all time highs

Geometric Value Line Index($XVG) is for the last few months under a significant horizontal resistance line. SPX  managed to break up to ATH(all time highs) but XVG still isn't confirming this upmove. 

Will XVG start rolling down towards the lower trendline of a falling megaphone( meaning a major crash for equity indices)?or is it different this time and it will follow SPX to ATH breaking out of this huge megaphone formation? 

Agricultural Commodities (DBA): A Brewing Rally?

Agricultural Commodities ETF (DBA) is in a downtrend since May 2014.During the previous week price broke down below the pivot point @ 25$ and is moving fast down.At first glance this is a bearish event...

..BUT you can notice that during the last test of 25$(17/12/14) there was a wide price range (wide price spread) with Low volume (green circle) suggesting low participation of smart money to a possible further downmove.
Also the recent breakdown was accompanied by slight increase in volume (blue circle).Next support area is 24-24,5$.

Taking into account the previous observations we believe that, unless we see a substantial increase in volume during down days,  there is a good possibility that the current down move is a fake one.We believe that DBA (which BB width is very compressed, and BB have just started to expand) is ready for a big move.First a bounce @ around 24,3 and then rally towards 26 and possibly further up.

A few wishful(?) end of year thoughts on Gold and USD

As we are heading towards the end of the year, we would like to share with you a few of our thoughts on Gold and USD. The following scenario is a byproduct of blending a delicious turkey dinner and a lot of wine with discussions about cycles, fractals, politics, physics and religion...

We would like to thank and wish all our readers a Happy New  Year and a very Profitable 2015!

Gold and Gold Miners still in bear mode-update

As we noticed almost 2 weeks ago (gold-and-gold-miners-still-in-bear-mode) Gold followed our preferred (pink) scenario and moved towards 1240$ where it bounced.

We can see some similarities of price action between October and from November until now (blue boxes).We believe that Gold will probably move fast initially towards 1100 and then 1000$

Gold Miners broke below the weak support line at around 18,5. Now this line is a weak resistance line which is converging with a descending resistance line (black line) and the EMA55(daily). There is a cluster of resistance between 18,5 to 20-21$ that is highly unlikely for GDX to penetrate.

Therefore we believe that GDX soon will move towards 14$ and then even 11$ where there is a good support zone as you can see in the following $HUI chart (100 HUI level=aprox 11 for GDX)

     

Energy stocks (XLE) death cross

As we predicted in this post (2014/10/energy-sector-xle-kol-short-term-bounce) energy stocks (XLE) bounced at 88$ and then resumed their descend towards 73$ ( 73,89$ 12-12-14 intraday low). Also EMA21(weekly) just crossed EMA55(weekly) which is a death cross event. Unless XLE reverses and starts rallying immediately, we expect a move initially towards 60-65$ where there is a support zone from 2009,2011,2012 .If price manages to break this zone then a move towards 50-55$(support zone from 2008,2010) is very likely.

Gold and Gold Miners still in bear mode

Gold is still in a downtrend at around 1206 during typing this lines.There is a descending resistance trendline from late 2012 (weekly chart black line) currently at 1250$ and a positive divergence in weekly RSI (blue line)

During the last few days gold is in a tight trading range between 1190-1210$(practically between Daily EMA21 and EMA55).If gold manages to stay above 1210 we believe that it will move towards 1230-1240 where it will bounce and resume its downtrend with a fierce move towards 1000$(pink line).
If gold breaks below 1190$ then it will resume its downtrend towards initially 1110 and then 1000$(red line).We give 60% to the former and 40% to the later scenario.So be cautious with the interpretation of the current upmove from 1140$...

Regarding the Gold Miners (GDX), the picture is the same.If GDX manages to stay above 20$ then next target is 21-22$ where it will probably bounce and resume its downtrend towards 10$.If it breaks down below 18,5, probably it will move towards initially 14-14,5$ and then lower.

Gold: Still bearish-some potential to move towards 1220$

Gold is currently in a counter-trend. If gold manages to stay above 1180 for a few days more then it can move gradually up to 1220 (EMA(daily)-55 and descending trendline of the current downmove from July)  where probably it will bounce and resume its downtrend towards 950-1000$. If Gold is going to loose 1180 level sooner rather than later then it will probably resume immediately its downtrend.The Swiss gold referendum could be a catalyst event for gold price.We believe that as long as Gold stays below 1250-1260$ there is a low possibility for a substantial long-lasting rally.

Thick black line:Descending trendline from Sept 2012
Thin black line :Descending trendline from July 2014
Green line: Weak support level at 1180$