Gold is probably ready to bounce from current levels towards 1240-1255.Daily RSI is currently at around 40 providing a support level from which gold can bounce towards RSI 60.For the following days we believe that gold will move in a trading range between 1190-1255$
Same picture for Silver.Probably it will move between 15,75-17,75$
Gold fell below 1235-1245 support zone(now resistance).Last hope for bulls the ascending trendline from November 2014 and the weekly RSI support zone of 40-45.
If Gold manages to stay above 1230-1240 then a possible 5th wave can end at 1300-1340$
A textbook Head and Shoulders pattern with volume confirmation in Emerging markets local debt fund (ELD) suggests significant further strength for USD versus EM currencies (especially NE Asian currencies) and possibly further weakness for EM markets like EWM(Malaysia), EWS(Singapore), IDX(Indonesia)
Gold managed to penetrate the heavy resistance line from 2012 and EMA(weekly) 21 and 55 which is bullish.However RSI14(weekly) bounced at resistance area 60-65(red line).
Silver and miners(GDX) are still below their heavy resistance trendlines from 2012 and EMA55(weekly) respectively.
Will Gold drag Silver and GDX or vice versa?
We believe that the level of 1235-1240$ is very important for gold.Bulls need to see price of gold above that level and preferably RSI14(weekly) breaking above its respective resistance area of 60-65(usually that happens during a 3,III).If Gold moves below that level the bullish scenario is loosing steam...
Gold finally managed to breakup the significant resistance line from 2012 with heavy volume after forming an IHS.Currently price of gold is above 21 and 55 EMA.Next target 1340$.
Gold is currently in a downtrend, still below EMA(weekly)55 and the descending trendline (black line) from 2012.Weekly RSI is below 60-65 resistance zone.
Daily chart, shows price of gold currently hitting the heavy resistance trendline(black) and daily RSI entering the resistance zone of 60-65.
Bulls need to see gold to break the descending trendline with substantially increased volume and preferably daily RSI above 65.We believe that there is a good chance for gold to bounce at resistance and continue its downtrend.
Geometric Value Line Index($XVG) is for the last few months under a significant horizontal resistance line. SPX managed to break up to ATH(all time highs) but XVG still isn't confirming this upmove.
Will XVG start rolling down towards the lower trendline of a falling megaphone( meaning a major crash for equity indices)?or is it different this time and it will follow SPX to ATH breaking out of this huge megaphone formation?
Agricultural Commodities ETF (DBA) is in a downtrend since May 2014.During the previous week price broke down below the pivot point @ 25$ and is moving fast down.At first glance this is a bearish event...
..BUT you can notice that during the last test of 25$(17/12/14) there was a wide price range (wide price spread) with Low volume (green circle) suggesting low participation of smart money to a possible further downmove.Also the recent breakdown was accompanied by slight increase in volume (blue circle).Next support area is 24-24,5$.
Taking into account the previous observations we believe that, unless we see a substantial increase in volume during down days, there is a good possibility that the current down move is a fake one.We believe that DBA (which BB width is very compressed, and BB have just started to expand) is ready for a big move.First a bounce @ around 24,3 and then rally towards 26 and possibly further up.
As we are heading towards the end of the year, we would like to share with you a few of our thoughts on Gold and USD. The following scenario is a byproduct of blending a delicious turkey dinner and a lot of wine with discussions about cycles, fractals, politics, physics and religion...
We would like to thank and wish all our readers a Happy New Year and a very Profitable 2015!
