Gold and Miners ahead of FED meeting

Gold did not form a rising wedge and instead it proceed to form what it seems like a trading range between 1180-1215.
However 1240-1250 remains the key level.Above that level bulls start to have chances for a substantial upmove.Our view is that Gold will move (especially after yesterdays upmove) towards 1240-1250 where probably it will bounce and (?)reverse.

Regarding Gold Miners ETF (GDX) we stay with our scenario(Gold:a fake Inverted H&S, a rising wedge and at the end a very bearish III(3) for GDX?) for an upmove towards  21-21,5 where probably it will bounce.

Don't forget we are just ahead of FED meeting and short term volatility for gold will increase substantially. Be ready to readjust your views after FED meeting tomorrow.

Gold:a fake Inverted H&S, a rising wedge and at the end a very bearish III(3) for GDX?

Gold seems like forming an inverted H&S formation (blue rectangle) that we believe it is a fake one .On the contrary we believe that gold is possibly forming a rising wedge (usually a bearish formation) pointing to around 1240$ where there is a resistance zone.

Gold Miners (GDX) formed a triangle that we believe (70%) it will break up  (fake move?) towards 21-21,5 where probably will bounce and reverse

A possible very bearish EW count

Gold Miners: A possible EW count suggesting major break down

As we noted in a previous post(Gold and Miners:A temporary bounce?) Gold and Gold Miners (GDX) bounced at resistance zone of 1200-1210 and 20-20,5 respectively.They are moving now downwards possibly towards their support zones at 1140-1150 and 17-18 respectively.

A possible GDX Elliot Wave count suggests a break down of support zone and a move towards 7,5-10$.

A scenario like the above is in accordance with our old view(March 2014)(A deja vu for SPX ?) that major equity index- SP500 will top at around 2000 and then slide to a new bear market.
et tempora quidem ante erit difficile...

Gold and Miners:A temporary bounce?

Gold bounced hard at 1140$ and is moving higher.Now it is just under a resistance zone at 1200-1205$ where probably will not penetrate and move lower, maybe to test again 1140 level.

Same picture for miners (GDX) ETF. It bounced at the extremely important support of 17-18 (Will Gold miners form a triangle?) and is now just below a resistance zone at 20-20,5$.It also filled the gap of early March(blue circle).We believe that GDX at current levels or a bit higher will bounce and move lower again.

To summarize, we lean bearish towards Gold for the following days-weeks    

Will Gold miners form a triangle?

Gold Miners (HUI): 

HUI is since 2012 in a clear downtrend.Recently has bounced once at a very significant support zone at 150-160(green area).

Currently HUI is confined between two descending resistance trendlines (black stronger, blue weaker) and the support zone at 150-160.

We believe that HUI will probably bounce at 150-160 and then move towards the weaker resistance trendline(blue)

A possible scenario could be the following:

Treasuries and HY bonds near a top?

US Bonds in general (except TIPs and HYG) are in a well defined uptrend.

However TLT(20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF) has recently hit the upper line of a longterm channel  with an RSI reading of over 80.The last 2 times that a similar situation took place, a major top for TLT ensued.Probably we are at or near a top for TLT. We believe that TLT will move towards the middle channel line where it will probably bounce and maybe retest the recent 138 high.

Regarding TIP(Inflation Protected Bond Fund ETF) it is currently in a trading range between 112 and 116.There is a small possibility for an inverted H&S formation similar to that of 2013 which can push TIP higher.However TIP is still in a downtrend since 2013.If TIP will breakdown below 111 then there is a good possibility for the following scenario

and last but not least, HYG(High Yield Corporate Bond Fund ETF) which is currently near strong overhead resistance at 92.Currently HYG is in a megaphone formation just below the upper line.There is a good possibility for a bounce and reverse of HYG at 92.Will it signal a major top for equities?

Gold and Silver ready for a bounce?

Gold is probably ready to bounce from current levels towards 1240-1255.Daily RSI is currently at around 40 providing a support level from which gold can bounce towards RSI 60.For the following days we believe that gold will move in a trading range between 1190-1255$

Same picture for Silver.Probably it will move between 15,75-17,75$

Gold turning bearish again?

Gold fell below 1235-1245 support zone(now resistance).Last hope for bulls the ascending trendline from November 2014 and the weekly RSI support zone of 40-45.

Gold towards 1300-1340

If Gold manages to stay above 1230-1240 then a possible 5th wave can end at 1300-1340$

Further USD strengthening versus EM currencies?

A textbook Head and Shoulders pattern with volume confirmation in Emerging markets local debt fund (ELD) suggests significant further strength for USD versus EM currencies (especially NE Asian currencies) and possibly further weakness for EM markets like EWM(Malaysia), EWS(Singapore), IDX(Indonesia)